<div>Moore's Law (which has grown in scope since Moore) applies to the aggregate effect of many technologies. Individual techs proceed in fits and starts. Predictions about FLOPS/dollar seem to be sustainable, but e.g. I predict a jump in chip density when the price point of vapor deposition manufactured diamond gets low enough (diamond conducts heat way better than silicon, and chips are suffering from thermodynamics limits).
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<div>When AT&T divested, you could not get a decent telephone anymore; they were too expensive to make so well. Then after years of crummy phones, suddenly everyone had a cell-phone just like Captain Kirk's. </div>
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<div>Sure I want fiber optics to my house. But maybe the power company will carry data on the wasted bandwidth of power lines. Keep the faith :-)</div>
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<div>Peter<br><br> </div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 2/1/07, <b class="gmail_sendername">Mark Hahn</b> <<a href="mailto:hahn@mcmaster.ca">hahn@mcmaster.ca</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">> Not true. Distributed computing is more and more mainstream. I think too<br><br>oh, one other snide comment about grid: I suspect the grid-fad could not
<br>have happened without the fraud perpetrated by worldcom and others during<br>the internet bubble. in those days, it was popular to claim that the network<br>was becoming truely ubiquitous and incomprehensibly fast. for instance:
<br><br><a href="http://www-128.ibm.com/developerworks/grid/library/gr-heritage/#N100A6">http://www-128.ibm.com/developerworks/grid/library/gr-heritage/#N100A6</a><br><br>I don't know about you, but in the 6 years since then, my home net
<br>connection has stayed the same speed, possibly a bit more expensive.<br>desktop/LANs are still mostly at 100bT, with 1000bT in limited use.<br>I do notice that grabbing large files off the net (ftp, RPMs, etc)<br>often runs at O(MBps) which is about a 10x improvement over the past
<br>10-15 years. so the doubling time turns out to be more like 3 years<br>rather than 9 months. in-cluster networking has improved somewhat<br>faster, but not dramatically so.<br>_______________________________________________
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