[Beowulf] Moores Law is dying

richard.walsh at comcast.net richard.walsh at comcast.net
Wed Apr 8 18:10:35 EDT 2009


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Ken Schuster" <ken at kschuster.org> 
To: beowulf at beowulf.org 
Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2009 2:29:17 PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern 
Subject: [Beowulf] Moores Law is dying 


>An IBM researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas. IB M Fellow Carl Anderson, who 
>oversees physical design and tools in its server division, predicted the end of continued exponential 
>scaling down of the size and cost of semiconductors: 

>"There was exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s; there was exponential 
>growth in the automobile industry in the 1930s and 1940s; and there was exponential growth 
>in the performance of aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of sound. But eventually 
>exponential growth always comes to an end," said Anderson. 

Mmm ... he may be right, but I do not like his historical references which seem 
to conflate engineering and economics.  Better to refer to the improvement in 
magnets or something similar.  But, I like the speed of sound reference because 
it suggests that there is a Moore's Law barrier to be broken.  There is a lot of 
talk about "walls" these days ... the memory wall, the power wall, ... but we with 
respect compute power we have a ways to go before we reach the Bremermann Limit. 

rbw 

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